Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 30

(:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model