Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 30 – San Francisco 49ers 23

(12:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 8 for -4 yards (29-J.Reid; 19-P.Hart).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model