Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(8:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model