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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.99 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model