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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model