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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 48 for -10 yards (6-D.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model