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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model