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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model