Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

(14:31) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 23 for 8 yards (16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model