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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model