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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 32 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine, 57-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model