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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -2.14 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP