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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 24 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model