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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model