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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 24 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model