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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 24 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP