4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 15 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 47 for 2 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model