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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 22 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -0.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model