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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.83 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model