Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

(5:45) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.54 EP
52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model