Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 61

Denver Broncos 14 – Detroit Lions 10

(3:11) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DET 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model