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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 84-S.Zylstra (93-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model