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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 34

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DEN 15 for 19 yards (30-C.Sterns). PENALTY on DEN-30-C.Sterns, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model