4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 41

Denver Broncos 31 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy to DET 20 for 21 yards (38-C.Moore; 52-J.Lemonier).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.52 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model