Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 78

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(8:22) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to DEN 24, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 26 for 2 yards (18-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model