4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model