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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model