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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 1
Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10
What Actually Happened
(3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.07 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK
+2.11 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
