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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model