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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model