Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(1:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model