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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model