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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(:41) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.28 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model