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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 32-D.Leavitt up the middle to LV 38 for 4 yards (44-D.O'Daniel; 20-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model