Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.16 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model