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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 35

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model