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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NO 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 30 for 11 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model