Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 78

New York Jets 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-E.Winston. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.99 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model