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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 56

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model