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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 19-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.55 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model