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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 86

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NO 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (86-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model