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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Shotgun) 77-J.Carpenter reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard to NYJ 23 for 3 yards (57-C.Mosley, 33-E.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model