4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP