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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 23 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model