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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.10 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP