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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 46

Houston Texans 13 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-F.Swain ran ob at SEA 20 for 9 yards (83-A.Auclair).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.95 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model