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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 19 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to HOU 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model