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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 57

Houston Texans 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to SEA 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP