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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 36

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP