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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP